Housing Reality Check: '23 Recap & Bold '24 Vancouver Predictions   Greetings, fellow home seekers and property enthusiasts! I'm Cassandra Marks, also known as Realtor Cas, your trusted guide to all things SW Washington, Clark County, Vancouver, and even Portland. Today, let's embark on a journey into the future as we delve into the 2023 final numbers and make bold predictions for the intriguing landscape of the 2024 housing market. Now, before we get too carried away, a few disclaimers – I may not be an economist, but my experience as a real estate investor since 2011 provides valuable insights into the trends shaping our local market. Home Price Predictions: The burning question on everyone's mind – home prices. In 2023, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicted flat appreciation year over year (YOY), and surprisingly, that's not far from the truth. Despite a peak of 8% interest rates in October, the national median home price saw a 4% YOY increase. In SW Washington, we experienced an even more impressive 8.4% appreciation. Looking ahead to 2024, housing economists don't foresee drastic changes. Redfin predicts a 1.7% decline, while Fannie Mae expects a bullish 2.4% increase. Demand remains high, and with rates settling around 6%, a 4% YOY appreciation is likely, maintaining the historical trend. Home Sales Predictions: In 2023, Lawrence Yun predicted a 6.8% decrease in home sales, but the reality was a nationwide drop of 14.5% and a staggering 28.2% in SW WA. Why? The lock-in effect, as over 80% of current mortgage holders enjoy rates below 5%. Looking to 2024, various sources offer different outlooks. Realtor.com anticipates a 13.2% increase in home sales, but this may not meet the market demand. The aging baby boomer population, with 10,000 turning 65 daily until 2030, will impact downsizing trends. A foreseeable inventory crisis until 2030-2035 may lead to a surplus, but in 2024, inventory levels could marginally increase without substantial rate drops. Mortgage Rate Predictions: Mortgage rates, a hot topic throughout 2023, saw predictions by Lawrence Yun for rates closer to 5%. Despite starting at 6.42%, rates peaked at over 8% in October, resulting in a 6.61% year-end close. For 2024, economists expect rates to remain below 7%, providing increased affordability. Affordability is crucial, especially with entry-level homes around $425,000 in the Vancouver/PDX market. A rise from 6% to 7% decreases buying power by 9%, emphasizing the significance of rate stability. While resale interest rates may not drop below 6%, new home builders may offer incentives to access lower rates. My Predictions for 2024: Average appreciation: 4-6%. Increased home sales due to lower rates and baby boomers downsizing. Flat interest rates throughout the year. Pandemic-driven buyer pickiness regarding homes. Buyer leverage in negotiations, with a focus on inspections, repairs, and seller-paid closing costs.   As a local expert with boots on the ground, I encourage you to reach out for insights tailored to specific neighborhoods. Whether it's the vibrant downtown Vancouver or emerging markets like Washougal or Ridgefield, I'm here to guide you. Let's navigate the 2024 housing market together, and who knows, when we reconvene in 2025, the market might surprise us, but my crystal ball tells me otherwise. Happy house hunting!

Is the housing market crashing in Vancouver Washington? As we reach the midway point of the year, it's natural to wonder how the real estate market in Southwest Washington is faring. I'm Cassandra Marks, also known as Realtor Cas, and today, I'll be sharing a comprehensive market report for the region. The real estate world has witnessed a rollercoaster ride this year, with fluctuating interest rates and their impact on home prices being a major concern. Join me as we delve into the numbers and gain insights into the current state of the housing market in this region. Interest Rates and Home Prices One of the most significant factors affecting the housing market is interest rates. Over the past year, interest rates have risen from 5.5% to approximately 6.5% to 7.25%. As a result, the average sales price in Southwest Washington has experienced a 3.3% increase, reaching $579,800 at the end of June 2023. The median sales price also went up by 4.3%, standing at $521,000. Despite the rise in interest rates, both the average and median sales prices are down by about 1% since the beginning of the year. It's essential to note that historically, home appreciation has hovered around 4% nationally, but this figure can vary significantly from year to year. Impact on Housing Inventory With climbing interest rates, the housing market in Southwest Washington has experienced some unique challenges in terms of inventory. New listings have decreased by a significant 24.8% compared to the previous year. This decline can be attributed to the "lock-in effect," where homeowners with low-interest rate mortgages (less than 4%) are hesitant to sell and lose their favorable rates. This phenomenon has resulted in a shortage of available properties, leading to a more competitive environment for buyers. The Housing Shortage Dilemma To understand the current housing shortage, it's crucial to examine the broader context. Following the 2008 market crash, the US was building between 800,000 and 1.2 million single-family homes annually. However, it took until 2021 to return to that level of construction. This lag in building has resulted in a significant shortage of five to six million single-family homes. Moreover, the simultaneous impact of Millennials' home-buying surge, pandemic-induced preferences, and the aging Baby Boomer generation choosing to age in place has further intensified the shortage. Market Strength and Future Projections Despite the challenges posed by rising interest rates and the housing shortage, the market in Southwest Washington is showing signs of strength. Comparing the numbers to May 2023, new listings, pending listings, and sold listings are all slightly up. The summer months typically see market growth, which continues until late October before slowing down temporarily for the holiday season. However, there's a sense of uncertainty moving forward, as inflation remains a concern. The Federal Reserve has raised rates, and further hikes are being discussed, which may affect spending habits and home appreciation. Benefits for Homebuyers While the current market conditions present challenges, there are still opportunities for homebuyers. The rise in interest rates has led to a slight increase in the days on market for homes, indicating a less competitive environment. Buyers may find more flexibility in negotiations, such as getting repairs done, having sellers pay closing costs, and even receiving seller-paid interest rate buy-downs. The key is to work closely with a knowledgeable and skilled buyer's agent to navigate the market effectively. As we reach the midway point of 2023, the housing market in Southwest Washington has been influenced by rising interest rates, resulting in a slight slowdown in price appreciation and a shortage of available properties. However, the market remains dynamic, with opportunities for buyers to find their dream homes. It's essential for buyers and sellers alike to stay informed and work with experienced real estate professionals to make the most of the current market conditions. If you're considering making a move to the Southwest Washington area, don't hesitate to reach out to a qualified Realtor like me, Cassandra Marks, to assist you in finding your perfect home. Let's navigate this exciting and challenging market together and make your real estate dreams a reality.

5 Mistakes You Should Avoid When Selling Your Home Selling a home can be a stressful process, especially if you're not familiar with the real estate market. In order to avoid making some common mistakes, it's important to be aware of what to do and what not to do when selling your home. As a real estate expert, I'm here to help you avoid five common mistakes that many homeowners make when selling their homes. Overpricing your home: One of the biggest mistakes that homeowners make is overpricing their home. It's important to set a price that's realistic and competitive in the current market. If you price your home too high, potential buyers may not even consider it, and it may sit on the market for an extended period of time. Neglecting repairs: Another mistake that homeowners make is neglecting necessary repairs. Buyers are increasingly savvy and are aware of the state of the property they're interested in buying. It's important to address any repairs before listing your home, as this can make your home more appealing to buyers and lead to a quicker sale. Not staging your home: Staging your home can help to create an inviting and welcoming atmosphere for potential buyers. If your home is vacant, consider having it professionally staged. If you're still living in your home, try to pack away as much of your personal belongings as possible, as this can help potential buyers to better envision themselves living in the space. Being inflexible with showings: It's important to be as flexible as possible when scheduling showings for your home. If you limit the times that potential buyers can view your home, you may miss out on potential offers. It's also important to be accommodating to buyers' schedules, as this can help to create a positive impression and make your home more appealing. Not working with a real estate professional: Selling a home can be a complex process, and it's important to have someone with experience to guide you through it. A real estate professional can help you to price your home appropriately, navigate negotiations, and ensure that the transaction goes smoothly. In conclusion, selling a home can be a stressful process, but by avoiding these five common mistakes, you can increase your chances of a successful sale. Remember to price your home competitively, address necessary repairs, stage your home, be flexible with showings, and work with a real estate professional. Good luck with your home sale!